Remote prospects of breakthrough at climate conference

But will delegates at the 6th Climate Conference in the Hague reach a breakthrough by November 24 when the talks end? The signs do not look good.

The Kyoto Protocol requires signatory nations to reduce their greenhouse gases below 5.2 per cent of the 1990 levels. A group of nations led by the United States, Canada, Australia and Japan wants to swop its obligations for investments in developing countries.

The other group of countries led by the European Union want all countries to fulfill at least 50 per cent of its obligations inside its territory. The United States, which produces 24 per cent of the worlds carbon dioxide, argues that it does not really make a difference where greenhouse gases are reduced and that it is cheaper to invest in environmental projects in the Third World.

This so-called emission trading will give an industrialised country in western Europe, for instance, the right to buy carbon dioxide from - for example - Romania, which cannot afford the fuel to run a polluting factory.

This is an extremely problematical scenario, as experts point out, because when then the Kyoto Protocol was signed in 1997 some countries accepted reduction targets way above their actual emissions.

Taking all this into account, a global reduction of greenhouse gases to below five per cent of the 1990 levels will not be enough to halt a steady warming of the earth's atmosphere that could make life unbearable for our grandchildren in many parts of the world.

Climate experts, although cautioning that it is extremely difficult to make predictions, say that the dry regions of the world will get even drier and the wetter areas wetter - meaning more droughts and more floods.

Yet it is not all doom and gloom. The Global Climate Coalition, the U.S. industry lobby group which so effectively campaigned against binding emission controls at the Kyoto conference, is fast losing credibility as the scientific community becomes more united in its arguments on the greenhouse effect.

A growing number of multi-nationals are realising that efficient use of energy and investment in environmental protection is profitable in the long run. At this year's World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland, government and business leaders voted the global climate change issue as the greatest challenge facing the world in the new century.

The optimists believe therefore that the private sector will eventually do far more in reducing pollution than the Kyoto Protocol. Several major motor manufacturers have announced plans to mass- produce a pollution free fuel-cell motor car by the middle of this decade. Technology is also looking at ways of "technically sinking" carbon dioxide in the ocean.

For the Kyoto Protocol to enter into force, 55 countries representing 55 per cent of all developed country greenhouse gas emissions must ratify the treaty. It is unrealistic to hope that this will be soon.

(la/dpa)