Palestinian - Israeli attacks escalate conflict

Virtually all analysts in Israel now talk of a "war of attrition", or "a dead-end war", or even - in reference to Israel's ultimately futile conflict in south Lebanon - the "Lebanonization" of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

They are divided, however, on what can, and should, be done, to deescalate the situation so that a return to peace talks remains a realistic option, rather than a missed chance.

Hemi Shalev, writing in the Ma'ariv daily, is perhaps the most forthright, stating unequivocally that Monday's "emotional storm does not need to blur the rational analysis that there is no military solution to the crisis, and perhaps even the contrary: the use of unbridled force will only take the situation to irretrievable depths."

Israeli Premier Ehud Barak, Shalev said bitingly, "wants to prove to (Palestinian President Yassir) Arafat by force, that nothing is proved with force. A somewhat opposing view is taken by veteran defence analyst Ron Ben-Yishai, in the rival Yediot Aharanot daily.

In an article entitled "Don't react, initiate", Ben-Yishai recommends that the Israeli army adopt "continuous, forceful, intensive" action, which would continue "until Arafat signals that he is ready for a ceasefire.

But like Shalev, Ben-Yishai is sceptical that the Israeli attack on Gaza Monday night - the heaviest Israeli action since the unrest began nearly eight weeks ago - seriously threatened the Palestinian Authority.

Analyst Roni Shaked, writing in the same paper, points out that "Arafat cannot be vanquished in this war, nor can the Palestinian people.... This war cannot be won by a knock-out blow, and at the end of it, the sides will have to resume negotiations."

If this is true, then the question arises when the two sides realise that they have no option but to negotiate, since neither can achieve its aims by military means. And the answer to this, it would seem, depends as much on internal Palestinian and Israeli opinion, as on the intentions of Barak and Arafat.

After over seven weeks of confrontations with Israeli soldiers and settlers, the Palestinians have nothing to show except rising casualties and growing support from Arab countries, which has so far not been translated into any concrete actions.

Arafat, said respected Israeli analyst Nahum Barnea in Yediot Aharanot, "needs an achievement to justify the past two months of suffering to his public." Barak faces a similar problem, having to deal with a public - and a political opposition - which is growing more strident in its calls for Israel to "hit back hard" at the other side.

As the unrest continues and peace recedes with each Israeli or Palestinian attack, Barak, who has staked his entire premiership on reaching a peace agreements with Israel's neighbours, is becoming more and more politically isolated.

At present Barak is voicing vague plans again on forming "a government of national emergency" which will include right-wing parties. These parties have been scathing about what they see as Israel's lack of serious response to the unrest, and the price for their joining forces with Barak would be a harsher Israeli policy toward the Palestinians.

In this case, such are the dynamics of the conflict, Palestinian determination and anger would only increase, leading to more attacks, leading in turn to more and harsher Israeli responses, all the time with the threat of the spiral spinning completely out of control.

"The next agreement between Israel and the Palestinians," says Barnea, "is apparently decreed to be signed after a period of mutual blood-letting. The leaders are not wise enough, or strong enough, to do it differently."

(la/dpa)